Inventory has likely peaked for the year, mortgage rates jumped in mid-September, and the biggest change in the market right now is on the demand side, not the supply side. Here's what the September 2026 numbers show and what I'm watching as we head into fall.

September 2026 at a glance

  • Inventory peak: about 2,287 homes for sale in the third week of September, the highest of the year.
  • Mortgage rates: about 6.7% at the start of September, now just over 7%, around 7.25% depending on the buyer's qualifications.
  • Sellers: new listings up about 3% from last year.
  • Buyers: pending sales down almost 13% from the same time last year.

Has inventory peaked?

Most likely. Inventory hit about 2,287 homes in the third week of September, the highest level we've seen all year. That follows the usual pattern: last year inventory peaked around the end of August, so we're a few weeks later this year, but peak inventory typically arrives right around this time. From here I expect a slow plateau and then a decline in the number of homes for sale through November and December.

What the jump in rates means

Rates started September around 6.7% and are now just over 7%, roughly 7.25% depending on the buyer. That is a real change in a buyer's monthly payment, and it will affect buyer demand, especially if rates rise again before the end of the year.

The real pressure is on demand

It isn't that more sellers are coming to market. New listings are up only about 3% from last year. The bigger shift is that fewer buyers are going under contract: pending sales were down almost 13% compared with the same time last year. So what's moving the market right now is lower demand, not a wave of new supply.

What I'm watching next

  • Does buyer demand keep dropping later in the year if rates go up again?
  • Do pending sales keep falling?
  • Does inventory keep building, or have we hit the peak and started to decline?

What this means for sellers

With fewer buyers writing offers, pricing and presentation matter more than they did in the spring. If you're thinking about selling this fall or next spring, a current pricing review will show you where your home fits. See how I sell homes.

What this means for buyers

Higher rates raise the monthly cost, but softer demand can mean less competition and more room to negotiate. Getting pre-approved and knowing your monthly numbers first puts you in a stronger position. Read my home buying guide.

Talk to Matt

If you have questions about what these numbers mean for your home or your search, reach out anytime. Get a free home value estimate, or call me at (206) 607-2575 or email matt@mattstarkrealestate.com.

Matt Stark, Windermere Real Estate Northeast